New automotive gross sales are prone to prime the 2-million-mark subsequent yr – a 4.3% year-on-year enhance though nowhere close to the averages seen between 2000-2019, in response to automotive providers supplier Cox Automotive’s newest Perception Report, produced in collaboration with Grant Thornton.

Its baseline state of affairs foresees 2,020,050 new automobile registrations in 2024 whereas used automotive transactions will in all probability be across the 7,350,205 mark which is able to signify a 2.8% year-on-year enhance though a 0.3% lower in comparison with the 2001-2019 common.

“The calculations recommend that 2024 will probably be a interval of stabilisation within the automotive sector usually, adopted by a notable rise in registrations in successive years,” mentioned the report authors.

The baseline state of affairs is one in all three eventualities printed by Cox Automotive and is the state of affairs it expects to play out. The report additionally contains upside and draw back eventualities.

Assumptions guiding the baseline prediction embrace figures for brand new automotive registrations will probably be dictated by persevering with financial pressures, the company gross sales mannequin transition and the stabilising of world manufacturing volumes. Used market numbers for 2024 will probably be formed by points together with a gradual adoption of used battery electrical automobiles (BEVs), a reasonably recovering economic system and a “fastidiously managed” development within the provide of used automobiles – the report concludes.

Perception Report writer and Cox Automotive’s perception director Philip Nothard mentioned: ““Current years within the automotive sector have seen a interval of unprecedented change and tumult which are being pushed by financial forces, geopolitics and technological innovation. In our newest Perception Report, we carefully study these components and description how we expect the longer term will pan out for sellers, the EV market and rather more.

“We anticipate that the market will ultimately be break up between producers who need profitability at the price of quantity and market share; and people who will return to a ‘push’ market at the price of revenue for quantity and market dominance.”

Perception Report 2023/24 additionally options dialogue of traits which are shaping the business such because the company gross sales mannequin, omnichannel, the rise of EVs, battery administration and sustainability.