The estimated Tesla international electrical automotive order backlog appears to be stabilizing above 50,000 items prior to now few months, down from round 100,000 within the first quarter.

We discover this metric to be an fascinating device to higher perceive the connection between provide and demand.

In keeping with Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike / Twitter), a useful supply for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated international order backlog as of August 16, 2023, was roughly 54,000 items. That is the identical quantity as on July 31. The estimated quantity varies between 49,000 and 60,000 since mid-June.

The numbers are primarily based on fastidiously tracked Tesla-related stats (manufacturing quantity, common wait instances for every mannequin/trim), as proven within the hooked up tweet.

The quantity corresponds to about 18 days of producing capability, which seems to be a steady degree as properly.

We guess that Tesla doesn’t wish to go under 50,000 and about two weeks of manufacturing capability, just because it will be not optimum from the logistics perspective. To draw extra orders and match rising capability, the corporate has to contemplate worth adjustments or enhance the merchandise.

The second half of the yr can be very fascinating as a result of the plant upgrades in Q3 are anticipated to restrict manufacturing, whereas the newly launched upgraded Mannequin 3 may spark a brand new wave of orders. These issues is perhaps seen within the stats in a couple of month.

For reference, listed here are the numbers for earlier durations (wait instances):

• August 16, 2023: 54,000 (18 days)
• July 31, 2023: 54,000 (18 days)
• July 16, 2023: 60,000 (18 days)
• June 30, 2023: 49,000 (17 days)
• June 19, 2023: 59,000 (18 days)
• Might 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
• Might 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
• April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
• April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
• March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
• March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
• February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
• February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
• January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
• January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
• December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
• December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
• November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
• October: 31, 2022: 285,000
• September 30, 2022: 299,000
• August 31, 2022: 385,000
• March-July, 2022: round 470,000
• January-February, 2022: lower than 400,000

When it comes to explicit markets, the steadiness between provide and demand stays marked “pink” (thought-about too low) for all main markets (United States, Europe, and China).

The shortest wait time for brand new vehicles is within the US and Canada – 14 days (though it was 11 two weeks in the past) for nearly all fashions.

In Europe, the estimated order backlog and common wait instances are longer (27 days). Curiously, in China, it is 17 days, however that is the quantity earlier than the brand new Mannequin 3 was launched (deliveries are anticipated in This autumn).

Estimated order backlog (change in about two weeks):

• United States: 14,246 (14 days) – elevated by 3 days
• Canada: 728 (14 days) – elevated by 3 days
• Europe: 20,034 (27 days) – decreased by 4 days
• China: 14,777 (17 days) – elevated by 2 days
• different: 4,078 (17 days) – decreased by 15 days
• Whole: 53,863 (18 days) – steady