Tesla introduced every week in the past that Giga Texas (its giant manufacturing facility simply exterior of Austin, Texas) had produced 10 million of the corporate’s new 4680 battery cells. That seems like loads! Properly, let’s be trustworthy, that could be a lot! Nonetheless, it’s in all probability not as many as you’d assume on the floor. It’s important to crunch some numbers in an effort to get a way of what that basically means by way of variety of electrical car battery packs, or extra merely, the variety of Tesla automobiles these cells may energy.

Really, you don’t need to crunch the numbers, as a result of Troy has. Tesla stat tracker, quantity geek, and chart creator “Troy Teslike” has put out his estimates for what 10 million 4680 cells means in a broader sense.

To start with, he notes that “5 million cells per thirty days are sufficient for less than 6,038/month Mannequin Y SR or 4,058/month Cybertruck SR.” So, 10 million cells can be sufficient for ~12,000 models of the lowest-range Mannequin Y or ~8,000 models of the lowest-range Cybertruck (when that involves market). That doesn’t sound so spectacular. Additionally, after all, when you wished to incorporate a blended common of longer-range and shorter-range Mannequin Ys or Cybertrucks, the totals can be significantly decrease.

Stepping into the main points a little bit additional, Troy Teslike writes, “Based mostly on my calculation, the Cybertruck Customary Vary battery pack could have round 1,232 cells and 100 kWh capability. Mannequin Y SR has 828 cells and 67.3 kWh capability.”

And what in regards to the larger image? Tesla Giga Texas is meant to supply 4680 battery cells for the Tesla Cybertruck and different Tesla automobiles. “That’s 8% of what Giga Texas wants for Mannequin Y and Cybertruck. So, nonetheless, a protracted solution to go,” Troy notes. Somebody requested, “Will Cybertruck additionally have the ability to use 2170 cells?” Troy, after all, doesn’t work for Tesla or know every thing, however he follows the corporate very carefully and will get varied ideas. His opinion was simple: “Possibly however there aren’t sufficient 2170 cells both.” Certainly.

With all of that in thoughts, one does marvel if a sluggish manufacturing ramp-up of 4680 battery cells may delay Cybertruck manufacturing additional. Naturally, Tesla may get 4680 cells elsewhere, however the thought was that Tesla Giga Texas would produce the cells and the vans. Additionally, whereas Tesla has produced simply 10 million 4680 cells to this point, it may produce 10 million a month in a few months, and 30 million a month not longer after that, and so forth. Or not. We simply don’t know.

So, with this little bit of information, we nonetheless don’t know a lot about the place Tesla might be a 12 months from now, however including context round what precisely 10 million cells can imply by way of car volumes does assist to see the larger image.

What are your ideas on this? How bullish are you on Tesla 4680 battery manufacturing in Texas and elsewhere?

They’re nonetheless late.

Not together with Semi, mannequin 3 and, most significantly, the small automotive.

— MSH (@mesanabinladen) June 17, 2023