I like to think about issues like an economist. I studied economics in school and taught economics at neighborhood school a few years in the past. To ensure that Tesla to extend its gross sales 50% subsequent yr (I notice that may be a long-term objective and yearly doesn’t should be precisely 50%), it must each improve demand for its automobiles and construct them. Assuming Tesla builds and sells 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, a 50% improve can be to 2.7 million in 2024. However it’s unlikely that Tesla would promote automobiles at a fee of two.7 million for the entire yr of 2024 — it will have to ramp up all through as proven under.

So, on condition that math, how may they do it? I’ll have a look at provide and demand. You may’t promote what you possibly can’t construct. Though there may be loads of demand for a $25,000 compact automobile that may drive itself (Stage 5 autonomy), it’s unlikely Tesla can construct that subsequent yr.

Provide

20 months in the past, under is how Troy Teslike thought Tesla may produce 2.7 million automobiles in 2024, and I believe that’s nonetheless fairly correct. I’ll ignore the Roadster and Semi, because the volumes are insignificant and the Cybertruck has clearly been delayed a yr or so, too.

Here’s what I believe Tesla’s manufacturing will probably be with the present buildings. There will probably be new buildings in 2024 and 2025. These usually are not included right here.

Nonetheless, apparently, it is already too late so as to add capability to Berlin for 2024 as a result of bushes cannot be reduce between March and Sep. pic.twitter.com/dcO4FSPXmI

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) January 24, 2022

Under is a latest submit from Troy, and we will see Mannequin Y manufacturing at over 170,000 1 / 4 in Shanghai is far increased than the estimate of 115,125 from 20 months earlier than. Likewise, the height manufacturing of 67,548 of Mannequin Y is far increased than the 32,000 predicted. Nonetheless, that is doubtless as a result of the Texas and Berlin charges of manufacturing are far under his (and my) earlier expectations.

Hello all people. My Tesla manufacturing estimate for Q3 was 422,243 on 29 Aug. That is a 12% drop vs. 479,700 in Q2.

That is associated to manufacturing unit upgrades. Elon talked about this. You may hear right here: https://t.co/rky2nU9ozw Deliveries will probably be much less affected due to current stock. pic.twitter.com/G1nXI2Ykl6

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 6, 2023

1. Fremont can doubtless increase manufacturing to about 700,000, primarily changing the Mannequin 3 to make use of Gigacastings for the entrance and rear. This may be a part of the Highland refresh or it may be on a distinct schedule, however it is necessary with a purpose to improve the manufacturing of the Mannequin 3 to fulfill the marginally elevated demand anticipated due to the refresh.
2. Shanghai is at present at nearly 1,000,000 annual run fee, and I anticipate it to have the ability to produce 1.2 million vehicles subsequent yr with the manufacturing upgrades it has made and has deliberate for yr.
3. Berlin’s ramp has been a bit disappointing, however I anticipate the manufacturing unit can produce 400,000 Mannequin Ys subsequent yr.
4. Austin’s ramp of the Mannequin Y has doubtless been slowed by the slower-than-expected ramp of 4680 batteries, however I anticipate that to enhance subsequent yr and Tesla to have the ability to improve Mannequin Y manufacturing to 300,000 models and Cybertruck manufacturing to be round 100,000 models.
5. It’s attainable Tesla may make a handful of its next-generation compact vehicles now that it doesn’t should construct a brand new manufacturing unit, however I believe it’s unlikely to provide sufficient to make a distinction in 2024.

This provides as much as the two.7 million vehicles we want subsequent yr. Now let’s have a look at the equally (or presumably extra) difficult problem of producing that a lot demand with solely 3 mainstream fashions.

Demand Levers

We want ample demand levers to promote a further 900,000 automobiles worldwide.

1. Full Self Driving isn’t doubtless to enhance to permit Stage 5 autonomy in 2024. As a fantastic driver-assistance system at Stage 2, I anticipate it may generate a further 100,000 models of demand, and that’s being optimistic. I believe this can generate nearly limitless demand as soon as it is ready to be authorized for Stage 5, however that may take years and never assist a lot with 2024 demand.
2. Cybertruck demand will exceed provide until it’s priced too excessive. I don’t anticipate it to be priced so excessive as to blunt demand, so I anticipate Tesla could have no downside promoting 100,000 models if it may construct them. The massive backlog doesn’t imply lots, since many individuals ordered and gained’t purchase until the product is an effective worth.
3. A lower-priced rear-wheel-drive Mannequin Y (as is on the market in a lot of the world) that’s out there within the US round $42,000, or about $35,000 after the Federal Tax Credit score, would vastly increase gross sales of the automobile — by about 100,000 models, I estimate — which is a large improve in a single nation, particularly since it’s already one of the best promoting automobile on the planet.
4.  The refreshed Mannequin 3 may improve demand worldwide from about 500,000 models to 600,000 models, a 100,000 improve.
5. A refreshed Mannequin Y may improve demand by a few 100,000 or extra whether it is out there by subsequent summer time.
6. In 2024, the US Federal Tax Credit score turns into a point-of-sale credit score, which implies the client will get it on the identical time they purchase the car. Hopefully, Tesla automobiles will be capable of declare the total credit score on the time of sale and get the total $7,500 credit score, however each of these are unknown presently. If patrons are in a position to declare the credit score on the time of sale within the US, this could improve demand by 100,000.
7. Tesla has spoken about rising leasing in chosen markets. Within the US, you should utilize this to get the total $7,500 tax credit score in conditions the place the client isn’t eligible or the automobile isn’t eligible. Tesla would favor to not use its capital this manner, however might have to relying on how issues go. It’s doubtless Tesla may improve gross sales by 50,000 or extra if it vastly expanded leasing with aggressive phrases. If it allowed homeowners to purchase the automobile on the finish of the lease, it may increase gross sales much more.
8. Tesla both decides to promote new entry-level Mannequin 3 and Y with downgraded options like material seats, a much less spectacular stereo, smaller wheels, and many others. This could enable costs as much as $5,000 decrease, however would possibly damage the model’s picture. The corporate would possibly choose to simply promote its current fashions for a lower cost and sacrifice margins and income to proceed to increase gross sales. Decreasing the value of the Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y as much as $5,000 ought to generate no less than 200,000 extra international gross sales.
9. As I mentioned on this article, promoting is required to teach customers in regards to the many benefits of electrical automobiles, to counter detrimental myths (FUD), and to tell individuals how inexpensive Tesla automobiles are. Relying on the extent of promoting, Tesla may generate extra demand for 200,000 or extra automobiles.

This provides as much as 950,000 models, however these estimates are approximate and there are after all many different components — like rates of interest, financial recessions, and the “competitors” — that may have an effect on demand each positively and negatively.

Conclusion

This isn’t meant to deal with all of the components that may have an effect on Tesla gross sales subsequent yr, however to touch upon the foremost gadgets that may have an effect on it which are particular to Tesla. Tesla has proven an unimaginable potential to fulfill its targets within the face of many difficulties, corresponding to provide chain disruptions, monetary strain, detrimental press protection, manufacturing difficulties, and extra. I don’t know if Tesla will promote 2.7 million automobiles subsequent yr, however I do know it should expend excessive effort and ability to get near that quantity even when it may’t obtain it.

If you wish to make the most of my Tesla referral hyperlink to get $500 off a brand new Tesla plus 3 months free trial of Full Self Driving, right here’s the code: https://ts.la/paul92237 — but when one other proprietor helped you, please use their hyperlink as an alternative of mine, since I’ve sufficient referral credit.  If you wish to be taught extra about Tesla’s referral program, right here is the hyperlink with the newest particulars. 

Disclosure: I’m a shareholder in Tesla [TSLA], BYD [BYDDY], Nio [NIO], XPeng [XPEV], Hertz [HTZ], and a number of other ARK ETFs. However I supply no funding recommendation of any type right here.