How we measure and report on the vitality and decarbonization transition issues. The legacy of previous items we use for vitality distorts debate and dialogue. Making use of items of vitality to issues like hydrogen that aren’t vitality frames them as essentially a part of the vitality transition. And the USA’s behavior of sticking with previous Imperial measurements that nobody else makes use of confuses issues additional.

However let’s begin with hydrogen. What’s hydrogen right now? It’s an industrial feedstock and a local weather change emissions downside, on the dimensions of all of aviation right now. But Europe measures it in items of electrical energy, TWh or MWh. What’s up with that?

Hydrogen Demand Projection by way of 2100, chart by creator

Its largest use is in oil refineries to take away sulfur, water, and different impurities from crude oil, and to crack lighter parts out of heavier parts. The more serious the standard the crude oil, the extra hydrogen is required, with my estimate being nearly eight kilograms of hydrogen to course of a barrel of Alberta’s oil sands crude, for instance. Low sulfur, gentle crude makes use of so much much less. The distinction is a part of why Alberta (and Venezuela’s) crude oils will likely be first off the market as peak oil demand arrives later this decade, with shuttering of most oil sands doubtless by 2040. The roughly one-third of all hydrogen, 40 million tons, used for oil right now will plummet within the coming many years.

Its subsequent largest use is in manufacturing ammonia fertilizer. About 25% or 30 million tons is used there. Fertilizer is important to feeding the billions of individuals on the planet, no matter impending peak inhabitants, more than likely someday between 2050 and 2070. We received’t get rid of fertilizer, however in my projections we’ll diminish its use considerably. Nitrogen fixing agrigenetics, precision agriculture, and low-tillage agriculture will all minimize into demand for it.

The one development sectors I foresee for it are in some pathways to the restricted quantity of biofuels we require for longer haul aviation and maritime transport, and inexperienced metal manufacturing. Hydrotreating of biofuels is a similar to hydrotreating of crude oil right now, however the huge demand attracts of desulfurization and hydrocracking received’t be current, so mixed with a lot decrease volumes of liquid fuels, it’s simply not going to be a giant consumption space. Inexperienced metal below the HYBRIT mannequin makes use of 59 kilograms of hydrogen per ton of metal, however we’ll be turning an increasing number of to scrapping present metal, particularly the large quantities in fossil gasoline infrastructure globally to provide new metal.

Be aware that none of those use instances is said to electrical energy and that I measure hydrogen in metric tons, an really wise unit for an industrial feedstock.

So why do particularly European organizations insist on measuring hydrogen with items of vitality? I lately stepped by way of a DNV report on manufacturing hydrogen offshore in wind farms. Amongst many different dangerous selections, it makes use of MWh because the measure of hydrogen.

It’s complicated. It takes about 60 MWh to fabricate a ton of hydrogen with the electrolyzer and stability of plant attracts. However that ton of hydrogen isn’t equal to 60 MWh of electrical energy by any stretch of the creativeness. First off, the 60 MWh used to fabricate, compress, retailer, and distribute hydrogen is probably 70% environment friendly. The 60 MWh is already solely 42 MWh.

You can also make a declare that hydrogen’s vitality is the same as its heating worth if burned, about 120 gigajoules (GJ). If you may get that hydrogen to one thing to burn it in with out losses, you may get that a lot warmth out of it. However hydrogen solely turns into electrical energy by way of both the equal of a pure gasoline mixed cycle generator that’s about 50% environment friendly, or maybe a gasoline cell that is perhaps 60% environment friendly. In actuality, solely about half of the vitality within the hydrogen is accessible as electrical energy.

The reported 60 MWh of hydrogen is barely 20 MWh of actual electrical energy. Utilizing MWh for hydrogen as DNV does grossly distorts the which means of the MWh unit.

As I famous in my evaluation of DNV’s report, even with their extremely optimistic numbers for inexperienced hydrogen from any supply, the tip price of vitality can be ten instances greater than imported liquid pure gasoline (LNG), the most costly type of imported vitality usually used right now, not that DNV makes that comparability anyplace of their report. Making vitality ten instances dearer is a recipe for financial catastrophe, and so will fall by the wayside. And as famous, DNV is extremely optimistic, so inexperienced hydrogen will really be dearer than they challenge.

After all, along with being deeply deceptive concerning the precise out there vitality, it’s framing hydrogen by way of vitality, not as an industrial feedstock. The elemental assumption that the DNV report makes is that hydrogen will change oil, pure gasoline, and coal as a main vitality service for Europe’s economic system. (DNV additionally ignores the stability of plant vitality attracts, assumes low cost electrolyzers, and assumes that hydrogen pipelines are extra environment friendly than HVDC transmission, all deeply questionable selections.)

Is DNV alone on this dangerous framing? No, the brand new European EEX Hydrix inexperienced hydrogen index additionally makes use of MWh because the unit for hydrogen too, as I famous when calculating the quickly inflating high quality low cost for Alberta’s crude oil lately. The index is a good suggestion, gathering industrial deal information, normalizing and aggregating it. However it’s caught on this hydrogen-for-energy paradigm.

EEX Hydrix FAQ assertion on utilizing LHV and MWh for inexperienced hydrogen

So sure, regardless of hydrogen not getting used for vitality right now, Europe is framing the whole lot about hydrogen right now by way of the electrical energy required to fabricate inexperienced hydrogen, as if that could be a unit of accessible vitality. They’re explicitly making a comparability to the way in which that Europe measures pure gasoline, additionally in MWh. It additionally makes use of the decrease heating worth, which is unrepresentative of the particular effectivity of the method. Why? As a result of the EU hydrogen technique does.

And to be clear, it’s ambiguous about whether or not the Hydrix index is utilizing the vitality required to fabricate hydrogen, though the reference to decrease heating worth means that’s the case, or whether or not it’s utilizing it from a perspective about its precise embodied vitality.

So, subsequent query. Is it acceptable for Europe to measure pure gasoline by way of MWh? It’s, relying on the conversion issue used. The most important use case for pure gasoline is, in spite of everything, era of electrical energy. So long as the spark unfold — the common distinction between the price of gasoline delivered on the gasoline transmission system and the facility worth — of fifty% is used, it’s a helpful measure. Industrial customers, who usually use pure gasoline for warmth rather more immediately, know convert it. Residential customers, one other massive however diminishing pure gasoline market, don’t know what MWh are anyway.

Lawrence Livermore Nationwide Laboratory (LLNL) Sankey diagram of US vitality flows for 2021

This can be a diagram usually utilized by me and plenty of different vitality analysts. It’s a Sankey diagram of vitality flows from main vitality to vitality providers. It’s a great tool, particularly once you take a look at rejected vitality in its outstanding place on the higher proper. Rejected vitality is vitality we throw away. We don’t use it. It’s simply vented into the ambiance. It’s excessive entropy and ineffective to us. It’s attainable to seize a tiny fraction of it and shift it into district heating options, however that’s by far the exception slightly than the rule.

Take a look at the grey bar popping out of Transportation on the underside proper, for instance. 80% of the vitality that flows into that field simply disappears, making the air above highways hotter and flowing out of the engines of jets and the smokestacks of ships. In comparison with the vitality from the solar hitting the Earth, it’s an infinitesimal quantity of warmth, however in comparison with the first vitality flowing into the system, it’s big.

This diagram, which is fully about vitality, makes use of quadrillions of British thermal items (Btu) as its unit of vitality. (Cue irony sound impact.) That’s a a lot poorer selection for vitality than the European mannequin as a result of the Btu is so unrepresentative of the vitality popping out the opposite finish. For those who want warmth, it’s fairly good. However if you happen to want electrical energy — and the world is electrifying quickly — then it’s a foul selection.

All of these vitality containers on the left of the diagram are in quadrillions of Btu, however we don’t want to switch them as we transfer to a lot greater effectivity electrical vitality makes use of powered by renewables the place nature provides us the gasoline without spending a dime, so now we have no effectivity losses to talk of when changing it to really helpful electrical energy.

And so, to a latest piece by the US Vitality Info Administration right here in CleanTechnica: Nonfossil Gasoline Vitality Sources Accounted For 21% Of U.S. Vitality Consumption In 2022.

US vitality consumption graph from US EIA

Nonetheless in quads, clearly. And it’s extolling the expansion of non-fossil gasoline shares of vitality. So the query is, how do they calculate the Btu for wind, photo voltaic, and water, as apparent examples?

There are quite a lot of selections. Zenon Analysis, a European local weather tech suppose tank, simply printed an evaluation of the issue, calling for standardization.

Zenon Analysis graphic from 2023 analysis notice Past Major Vitality

They discuss concerning the alternative ways to get to vitality equivalents. The above graphic reveals the three main strategies used. Substitution provides the inefficiencies of thermal era to the wind, photo voltaic, and water, answering the query “If we needed to burn pure gasoline for this, what number of thermal items of gasoline can be required for a similar electrical energy?” It’s the spark unfold of fifty% once more, however after all, which means choosing the right quantity for the spark unfold. It will get the whole lot into the identical items, however the items are dangerous.

The direct equal methodology simply makes use of the output of wind, photo voltaic, and water as is, assuming 100% effectivity of turning wind into helpful vitality. That’s clearly lacking transmission and the like, so is otherwise imperfect, however a lot nearer to helpful.

The bodily vitality content material methodology makes use of the direct equal methodology for wind, water, and photo voltaic, and a conversion issue for thermal pathways on account of their vitality losses.

So what does the IEA information use? Are these precise items of vitality, with the really helpful electrical energy appropriately represented, are they grossed up with thermal inefficiencies, or what?

“Starting with the September 2023 Month-to-month Vitality Evaluate (MER), we’ll calculate consumption of noncombustible renewable vitality for electrical energy era utilizing the captured vitality strategy, which applies a relentless conversion issue of three,412 British thermal items per kilowatthour (Btu/kWh), the warmth content material of electrical energy. This can be a change from our present methodology, known as the fossil gasoline equivalency strategy.”

Effectively, they’re about to vary and confuse everyone.

So if they will direct Btu in September, what are they utilizing within the diagram above? That’s really a query I’ve been making an attempt to determine for some time with the LLNL Sankey diagrams as properly, as their transient footnote was remarkably uninformative.

It took a very long time to resolve this, and once I say backside, I imply the underside row on a giant small print desk on web page 241 of the IEA’s June 2023 Month-to-month Vitality Evaluate report. At current, for wind, water, and photo voltaic PV, they’re utilizing 8,844 Btu because the vitality equal. That equates to a 39% effectivity issue, consultant of quite a lot of thermal era that’s properly beneath pure gasoline mixed cycle mills.

Okay, so the EIA is aligning with the remainder of the world on how they signify vitality from renewables. Are they doing the identical for fossil fuels?

Effectively, no.

Which means as of September, the EIA will begin representing renewables as a a lot smaller portion of the USA’s vitality combine than they’re in actuality, reducing their obvious deployment by 61%. The EIA doesn’t signify the rejected vitality within the fossil fuels because the LLNL Sankey diagram, so till they handle this, they will make renewables look terrible.

The 21% win that they’re claiming within the CleanTechnica article, and presumably different press efforts, goes to be severely degraded in future reporting. Mainly, the EIA is steaming away from apples-to-apples comparisons. One has to ask why.

So, two main economies, the EU and america. Two completely different issues with how they signify issues. The EU is failing by making use of items of electrical energy to hydrogen. The US is failing by eradicating apples-to-apples comparisons of fossil fuels to renewables. Each are combating the transition in numerous methods.

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