Replace: Tesla has launched its Q3 gross sales (deliveries) and manufacturing numbers. They’re as follows:

That is the assertion Tesla included with the manufacturing and gross sales replace: “Within the third quarter, we produced over 430,000 automobiles and delivered over 435,000 automobiles. A sequential decline in volumes was brought on by deliberate downtimes for manufacturing unit upgrades, as mentioned on the latest earnings name. Our 2023 quantity goal of round 1.8 million automobiles stays unchanged.”

As you may see evaluating the numbers above and Troy Teslike’s estimates earlier than the numbers have been launched, they have been very shut. Troy was nearly 6,000 deliveries excessive in his estimate for that determine and his manufacturing estimate was about 1,500 shy of the eventual actuality.

Initially printed on October 1:

The query of the week within the cleantech world and the funding world is: What number of automobiles did Tesla produce and ship in Q3 2023? The numbers needs to be printed within the subsequent day or so, however as we eagerly await these, and as we strategy Monday, what are probably the most knowledgeable estimates?

As I’ve indicated earlier than, I feel “Troy Teslike” is at the moment one of the best on the planet at monitoring Tesla manufacturing and supply numbers and information, and thus creates one of the best manufacturing and gross sales estimates. His newest estimate, as of yesterday, is that Tesla delivered 441,000 automobiles within the third quarter. That’s fairly a distance in need of the Wall Avenue analyst consensus of 454,809 deliveries.

Notably, his manufacturing estimate is even decrease — 428,519 automobiles.

You’ll be able to see from his tweet (linked above) that information sources embody DMV VIN information, gross sales information from the China Passenger Automotive Affiliation (CPCA), automotive insurance coverage information, his order monitoring spreadsheets, registration information from 24 international locations, weekly manufacturing fee and manufacturing milestone bulletins from Tesla, stock information, export information, transport information, and statements from Tesla in convention calls. That’s fairly complete. Troy’s private goal together with his end-of-quarter estimates is to not miss the precise quantity by greater than 3%. He’s obtained a reasonably good document on this, too.

On this tweet, you may see how his estimates are damaged out by nation and manufacturing unit throughout all 4 quarters of 2023 and 2023 as a complete:

Right here is my detailed desk for Tesla deliveries. The ultimate estimates for Q3 2023 are as follows:

• My estimate: 441,000
• Analyst consensus: 454,809

Half 2/3 pic.twitter.com/OOB25ZKyfX

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 30, 2023

Right here’s his breakdown for manufacturing:

Right here is my detailed manufacturing desk. I estimate 428,519 manufacturing in Q3.

Half 3/3 pic.twitter.com/rK9QU83BWU

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 30, 2023

When you look carefully on the Mannequin 3 estimates for Q3, you may see that he expects gross sales are down internationally in comparison with Q2 2023, however the greatest drop by far is in China. He’s anticipating a drop of greater than 24,000 items. Naturally, this relates partly to the Mannequin 3 Highland refresh and manufacturing unit retooling for that. However does rising competitors and an ongoing worth conflict come into play as effectively? Who is aware of? However the 4th quarter ought to inform us extra.

How about Mannequin Y? On this case, Troy estimates roughly 13,000 extra deliveries in China within the third quarter versus the 2nd. He additionally expects about 10,000 extra Mannequin Y deliveries exterior of China, Europe, and North America in Q3 than in Q2.

So, that’s what we’ve for now so far as a really knowledgeable estimate of Tesla deliveries and manufacturing within the quarter that simply ended at midnight. What are your ideas on these estimates?