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International gentle car gross sales forecast – January 2024 version


Automotive World’s month-to-month world gentle car gross sales forecast gives a snapshot of previous and future gross sales volumes damaged down by area

International gentle car gross sales snapshot

Throughout 2023 most markets improved, a number of extra strongly than forecast in the beginning of the 12 months, with double-digit rises in a number of areas together with Europe and North America.

The development displays:

  • provide circumstances have principally returned to regular, enabling remaining pent-up demand to be glad;
  • internet costs (sticker value minus incentives) have usually fallen;
  • world financial progress was barely higher than anticipated firstly of the 12 months.

The total-year out-turn for 2023 (together with estimates for some markets) was an increase of 8.3% in world demand to 83.9m items, nonetheless nicely beneath the pre-pandemic degree, however the eighth highest determine of the previous 30 years.

The rise in 2023 was nicely forward of our start-of-year forecast for a rise of 5.1%, primarily reflecting the truth that most economies carried out extra strongly than anticipated firstly of the 12 months.

Our forecast for 2024 is for additional progress in world demand however at a considerably slower tempo than 2023 because the pent-up demand has now been met and the macro-economic circumstances stay robust.

International gentle car gross sales replace

Gentle Automobile gross sales (000s) 2022 2023(e) 2024(f) Change -v- prior 12 months Notes
China 24,042.8 25,220.9 26,020.0 3.2% Economic system anticipated to develop at slower tempo in 2024, round 4.6% from 5.2% estimated in 2023
N. America (US & Canada) 15,380.4 17,041.5 17,760.0 4.2% Momentum from 2023 to hold ahead into new 12 months, helped by value competitors and incentives.
EU+EFTA+UK 12,937.0 14,838.7 15,210.0 2.5% Gross sales progress slowing however nonetheless optimistic in 2024.
S. America 4,833.0 5,161.6 5,360.0 3.8% IMF 2023 GDP forecast raised to 2.3% from 1.9%. Brazil shopper confidence edged decrease in December however Mexico highest since February 2019.
India 3,929.3 4,212.2 4,260.0 1.1% Development underpinned by new product launches and secure market sentiment.
Japan 4,121.4 4,632.8 4,730.0 2.1% December shopper confidence rose to highest since December 2021, notably willingness to purchase sturdy items.
Asean 2,794.0 2,824.7 2,871.6 1.7% Financial outlook for Asean international locations nonetheless optimistic. GDP in most international locations anticipated to rise at sooner price than 2023.
Center East 2,451.8 2,640.6 2,603.1 -1.4% Double-digit decline anticipated in Turkey (regional chief) after two robust years.
RoW 7,025.7 7,362.9 7,424.8 0.8%
Whole 77,515.4 83,936.1 86,239.5 2.7%
Change -3.3% 8.3% 2.7%

LV Gross sales, Prime-5 markets: Dec-23 -v- yr in the past (items, 000s)

LV Gross sales, Prime-5 markets: Jan-Dec 2023 -v- yr in the past (items, 000s)

LV Gross sales, Subsequent-11 markets: Dec-23 -v- yr in the past (items, 000s)

LV Gross sales, Subsequent-11 markets: Jan-Dec 2023 -v- yr in the past (items, 000s)

Prime-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: Dec-23 -v- yr in the past (%)

Change in LV Gross sales, Prime-16 markets: Jan-Dec 2023 -v- yr in the past (%)

Prime-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: Dec-23 -v- yr in the past (000 items)

Prime-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: Jan-Dec 2023 -v- yr in the past (000 items)

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